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Topic:
The council of Maple County, concerned about the county's becoming overdeveloped, is debating a proposed measure that would prevent the development of existing farmland in the county. But the council is also concerned that such a restriction, by limiting the supply of new housing, could lead to significant increases in the price of housing in the county. Proponents of the measure note that Chestnut County established a similar measure ten years ago, and its housing prices have increased only modestly since. However, opponents of the measure note that Pine County adopted restrictions on the development of new residential housing fifteen years ago, and its housing prices have since more than doubled. The council currently predicts that the proposed measure, if passed, will result in a significant increase in housing prices in Maple County.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
شورای شهرستان میپل، با توجه به توسعه بیش از حد شهرستان، درباره اقدام پیشنهادی بحث می کند که می تواند از توسعه زمین های کشاورزی موجود در شهرستان جلوگیری کند. اما شورا همچنین نگران این است که چنین محدودیتی، با محدود کردن عرضه مسکن جدید ممکن است منجر به افزایش قابل توجهی در قیمت مسکن در شهرستان شود. طرفداران این اقدام متذکر می شوند که ده سال پیش شهرستان چستنات اقدام مشابهی را انجام داد و از آن زمان به بعد قیمت مسکن آن تنها به طور متوسطی افزایش یافته است. با این حال، مخالفان این اقدام یادآور می شوند كه 15 سال پیش، شهرستان پاین محدودیت هایی را در زمینه توسعه مناطق جدید مسكونی تصویب كرد و قیمت مسكن از آن پس بیش از دو برابر شده است. این شورا در حال حاضر پیش بینی می کند که در صورت تصویب، اقدام پیشنهادی منجر به افزایش چشمگیر قیمت مسکن در شهرستان میپل خواهد شد.
پاسخی بنویسید که در آن درباره اینکه چه سوالاتی باید پاسخ داده شود تا تصمیم بگیرید که آیا پیش بینی و استدلالی که بر آن استوار است منطقی است یا نه بحث کنید. حتماً توضیح دهید که چگونه پاسخ این سوالات به ارزیابی پیش بینی کمک می کند
Strategies
Prediction:
Limiting the development of existing farmland will result in a significant increase in housing prices in Maple County.
Argument:
Proponents point to similar measures being adopted in Chestnut County resulting in only a modest increase in housing prices.
Opponents point to similar measures being adopted in Pine County resulting in housing prices more than double.
Questions:
a) What is the median income in each of the other counties? How do they compare to the median income in Maple County?
b) How do the school systems in the three counties compare?
c) What was the housing inventory in the other two counties prior to development? What is the housing inventory in Maple County? This would include apartments, condominiums, town houses, as well as detached single-family homes.
d) What incentive is there for people to move to any of the three counties? The counties may provide different services and facilities that make one county more desirable than the others.
e) Is one of the counties home to a large city? Development around a large urban area may demand higher prices.
f) What is the demographic of each county? It could be that Pine County residents are married couples with two incomes and growing families who need larger homes. Chestnut County residents may be retirees who are downsizing.
g) Is there anything inherently wrong with increased prices for homes in Maple County? The residents of Maple County may benefit from a rise in real estate prices. The council may fear that higher housing prices will discourage people from moving to their county.
Your notes do not have to be exhaustive. As you begin to write your essay, your brain will generate new ideas.
Make certain that you keep the directions in mind as you develop your ideas.
Sample 1:
In a backlash against urban sprawl, counties have created restrictions and parameters for development that requires expanding their infrastructure and broadening the scope of their services. When a developer presents a plan for a new residential subdivision, he relies on the community to extend its water and sewer lines and lay down new streets. There are more structures for the fire department to cover, more area for police cruisers to patrol, and more roadways for plows to clear in winter. If families with children move into the new homes, the schools may become overcrowded. The expansion of the tax base may not offset increased costs to the city. Despite these additional demands, an expanded housing inventory tends to keep prices affordable and encourages people to move to the area. The council of Maple County would be wise to consider several questions before deciding either course of action regarding development.
The main objection to restricting development appears to be a fear that housing prices will increase dramatically. This is a likely consequence only if conditions that exist in Maple County are similar to those in Pine County. Why did housing prices more than double in Pine County? It may be that Pine County is a more desirable place to live, and there is a greater demand for homes there. Supply and demand always influence the price of any commodity. Pine County may be home to a large city that provides great career opportunities and cultural activities that make its suburbs attractive to upper middle-class citizens. Pine County may have award-winning schools that attract young families desiring a high-quality education for their children. If Pine County does, indeed, possess these attributes, a lack of housing inventory would inflate the prices of existing homes.
In contrast, Chestnut County may lack the desirable characteristics that make an area attractive to people seeking a new place to live. Why did the prices of homes in Chestnut County experience only a moderate increase when officials limited development there? This county may be rural in nature, with significant distances between homes, eliminating the neighborhood structure that families find appealing. It may be that Chestnut County lacks opportunities for shopping, recreation, and cultural activities that attract well-educated, affluent families. Its schools may not be stellar, discouraging families with children from settling there. Even though Chestnut County has limited housing inventory, the demand for the homes that do exist simply isn’t as high as it is in Pine County. As a result, any increases in prices there are likely due to inflation.
How does Maple County settle the argument about restricting development? Members of the council should complete a thorough analysis of the three counties to determine how Maple County is similar to or different from the other two. If Maple County has more in common with Pine County, they may want to lift restrictions on development and allow more homes to be built to keep housing prices affordable. On the other hand, if Maple County has more in common with Chestnut County, restricting development for the time being may be the wisest course. They will not have expended county funds to expand infrastructure and services for a county that is not likely to attract sufficient numbers of new residents to offset the cost of such improvement.
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