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Topic:
The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. This shows that eating a substantial amount of fish can clearly prevent colds. Furthermore, since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, attendance levels will improve. Therefore, we recommend the daily use of a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
یادداشت زیر در خبرنامه شورای بهداشت عمومی West Meria منتشر شده است.
"یک درمان ابتکاری مورد توجه ما قرار گرفته است که نوید می دهد غیبت در مدارس و محل کار ما به میزان قابل توجهی کاهش یابد. یک مطالعه گزارش می دهد که در مریای خاور نزدیک، که مصرف ماهی بسیار زیاد است، مردم فقط یک یا دو بار در سال برای درمان سرماخوردگی به دکتر مراجعه می کنند. این نشان می دهد که خوردن مقدار قابل توجهی ماهی می تواند به وضوح از سرماخوردگی جلوگیری کند. بعلاوه، از آنجایی که سرماخوردگی بیشترین دلیل غیبت در مدرسه و محل کار است، میزان حضور بهبود می یابد. بنابراین، توصیه می کنیم روزانه از یک مکمل غذایی مشتق شده از روغن ماهی به عنوان روشی خوب برای جلوگیری از سرماخوردگی و غیبت کمتر استفاده کنید. "
پاسخی بنویسید که در آن درباره اینکه چه سوالاتی باید پاسخ داده شود تا تصمیم بگیرید که آیا پیش بینی و استدلالی که بر آن استوار است منطقی است یا نه بحث کنید. حتماً توضیح دهید که چگونه پاسخ این سوالات به ارزیابی پیش بینی کمک می کند.
NOTE: The above topic has wording similar to Argument Tasks 155 and 158 of this Website. However, if you read carefully you will notice that the topic and the task instructions are different. Hence, it is very important to read the topic as well as its instructions completely before you start to write your response.
Strategies
A good place to start your analysis is by creating a statement that reveals the main idea of the argument. Although the writer is creating an argument, he may ultimately be stating a position, making a recommendation, or making a prediction. It may be helpful for you to determine which of these formats is most evident in the argument.
The West Meria Public Health Council uses the low-frequency of doctor visits by residents of East Meria to support its recommendation that West Merians take a fish oil supplement.
Assumptions:
a) High fish consumption in East Meria leads to fewer visits to the doctor for treatment of colds.
b) Fewer colds will increase attendance at work and school.
c) People always see a doctor for treatment of colds.
d) A daily nutritional supplement from fish oil will have the same effect as eating fish.
e) People are truthful about their reasons for missing school or work.
f) People will willingly and consistently take the supplement.
g) People in West Meria eat less fish than people in East Meria.
Questions:
a) Does everyone see a doctor for treatment of every cold?
b) Do citizens who eat the most fish have the fewest colds?
c) Do residents of East Meria take any other steps to prevent colds?
d) Are residents truthful with their employers about their reasons for missing work?
e) Have East Meria's schools and workplaces seen a significant decline in absenteeism?
f) Is the supplement affordable?
g) How significant a problem is absenteeism in West Meria?
h) Do East Merians have easy access to doctors?
i) Do citizens of East Meria eat significantly more fish than those in West Meria?
After completing these steps, you should have enough material to write your analysis. Remember that you are not creating a position of your own; you are evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of the existing argument. You do not have to include all of the points that you have created in your prewriting. In fact, during the process of drafting your analysis, other ideas may come to mind, and, if they strengthen your analysis, you should include them.
NOTE: The above topic has wording similar to Argument Tasks 155 and 158 of this Website. However, if you read carefully you will notice that the topic and the task instructions are different. Hence, it is very important to read the topic as well as its instructions completely before you start to write your response.
Sample 1:
The recommendation in this argument lacks sufficient support. A number of questions need answers before deciding on the efficacy of the recommendation that citizens of West Meria take a fish oil supplement each day in order to reduce the incidence of colds and improve attendance at work and school.
The first questions should attempt to clarify the reason for the implication that East Meria residents have fewer colds. Do they really have fewer colds or do they simply seek treatment less often than residents of West Meria? If a survey of East Meria residents shows that they do, indeed, have significantly fewer colds than people in West Meria, further investigation of lifestyle choices is warranted. On the other hand, survey results showing that they simply choose not to seek treatment for colds as often as people in West Meria invalidate the claim that eating fish makes East Meria residents less susceptible to colds.
Do East Meria residents take any other action that might result in fewer colds? They may avoid smoking tobacco, since smoking is linked to a variety of upper-respiratory illnesses. Perhaps they take daily supplements like Vitamin C or Echinacea, both of which purport to boost the immune system. East Merians may exercise regularly and maintain ideal weights. If any of these conditions exist, the argument and concomitant recommendation become weaker.
One may infer from the argument that absenteeism is a big problem in West Meria, but is that the case? It is likely that people suffer colds more frequently than any other illness, but many go to work or school in spite of them. Without asking schools and businesses about their rates of absenteeism, it is impossible to determine the benefits of taking the fish oil supplement. Do workers and students in East Meria miss fewer days of work or school than residents of West Meria? Visiting the doctor fewer times each year does not necessarily indicate that East Merians have less absenteeism. In fact, residents of East Meria may contract more serious illnesses than do citizens of West Meria. Has the West Meria Public Health Council collected data on all types of illnesses?
How likely are West Merians to take the supplement? It may be too expensive or difficult to obtain. If they are not currently taking any action to avoid catching colds, they may balk at taking the supplement. Is there research that proves taking the supplement is effective in boosting the immune system? Residents may want to know how effective the supplement is before laying down any amount of money to purchase it.
Why is fish consumption so high in East Meria? Commercial fishing may be the main industry there, making easy access to fresh fish and prices low enough to make fish the protein of choice. Do East Merians in fact eat considerably more fish than West Merians? Residents of both towns may consume equal amounts of fish. What, then accounts for the higher number of doctor visits in West Meria? They may have better health insurance that pays for those doctor visits. The citizens of East Meria may have to pay for doctor visits out-of-pocket and cannot afford to do so every time one has a cold.
Do colds account for the greatest number of absentee days? Although colds may be the most common reason for missing work or school, those suffering from them may miss only a day or two, whereas a more serious illness may require a longer absence from work. Are people always truthful about the reason they give for missing work? It's easier for people to say they have a cold than to admit they are hung-over or simply need a "mental health" day.
Until the citizens of West Meria have answers to the questions about the efficacy of a supplement derived from fish oil as a cold compared to other illnesses on absenteeism, they cannot commit to buying and taking a daily supplement.
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