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Topic:
The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava.
"The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year's birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students enrolled in our public schools will soon decrease dramatically, and we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade. At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities. As a result, we will have sufficient money to fund city facilities and programs used primarily by adults, since we can expect the adult population of the city to increase."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
موارد زیر به عنوان توصیه کمیته ای که در حال برنامه ریزی بودجه ده ساله برای شهر کالاتراوا بود ارایه شده است.
"میزان زاد و ولد در شهر ما در حال کاهش است: در واقع، میزان زاد و ولد در سال گذشته فقط نیمی از زاد و ولد در 5 سال گذشته بوده است. بنابراین تعداد دانش آموزان ثبت نام شده در مدارس دولتی ما به زودی به طرز چشمگیری کاهش می یابد و ما می توانیم با خیال راحت بودجه آموزش و پرورش را در طول دهه آینده کاهش دهیم. در عین حال، می توانیم بودجه زمین های بازی ورزشی و سایر امکانات تفریحی را کاهش دهیم. در نتیجه، ما پول کافی برای تأمین بودجه امکانات و برنامه های شهری که عمدتا توسط بزرگسالان استفاده می شود خواهیم داشت، زیرا انتظار می رود که جمعیت بزرگسالان شهر افزایش یابد.
پاسخی بنویسید و در آن توضیح دهید که چه مستندات خاصی برای ارزیابی بحث لازم است و شرح دهید که چگونه این مستندات می تواند بحث را تضعیف یا تقویت کند.
Strategies
Argument:
Because of declining birthrates, the city can redirect funds it has habitually spent on facilities for young people to programs for adults.
In developing your response, you must determine what evidence the planning committee needs to uncover before making its final budget decisions for the next ten-year cycle.
Facts and Assumptions:
a) Last year's birthrate was half of that five years ago. The assumption is that the birth rate has been declining steadily. Is last year's birthrate an anomaly? What was the birthrate in the intervening years? How many births were there 5 years ago? If there were only 4 births, for example, then half of that is not a huge drop. If there were 100 births 5 years ago, then half of that is cause for concern.
b) The committee assumes that the lower birth rate predicts a smaller school population. The committee reasons that the school budget can, therefore, be reduced. Does the committee have any figures on the number of families that may have moved to the town?
c) The committee uses its assumption of a smaller school population to suggest that less money be spent on athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities. Even if the number of young people declines, won't those remaining still play sports and use the recreational facilities? Might residents be willing to pay to use the facilities to offset the cost of maintaining them? Are the facilities used only by children?
d) The committee suggests diverting funds previously used on youth facilities to fund facilities and programs used primarily by adults. The assumption is that the adult population will increase as the youth population decreases. If there is a decline in the birth rate, won't there be a corresponding decline in the number of people who become adults? Have other towns had success doing this? How does the town attract new residents if it has let its facilities for young people decline in quality?
Your notes do not have to be exhaustive. As you begin to write your essay, your brain will generate new ideas. Make certain that you keep the directions in mind as you develop your ideas.
Sample 1:
Unless one is planning a retirement community, catering to the needs of adults at the expense of the children is an unwise choice. It is sometimes easy to relegate children to the background when making budgetary decisions. Children don’t vote or pay taxes. When there is an apparent decline in the number of children requiring services traditionally reserved for them in a town, it becomes easier to divert funds for their benefit to programs and facilities that focus on adults. Those voters and taxpayers whose own children have grown are now focused on their own needs and may see decisions that benefit them as the correct ones. City stakeholders must take a closer look at the facts presented by the planning committee before making any long-term decisions for the community.
The apparently drastic decline in the birthrate seems to justify the committee’s recommendation. When citizens are told that the birthrate last year was just half of what is was five years ago, visions of empty classrooms and playing fields fill their heads. It would be logical to assume that fewer tax dollars will be needed to educate and entertain the young people of Calatrava. What these residents must do first is to more closely examine this statistic. How many children were born in Calatrava five years ago, and how many were born last year? A decline of fifty percent is alarming. However, if there were only four births in Calatrava five years ago, then last year’s births totaled two. Two fewer births is hardly a cause to fire teachers, close schools, or let playing fields become decrepit. Upon further investigation, the committee may discover that, five years ago, Calatrava recorded fifty births and last year only twenty-five births. Twenty-five children represent an average classroom population. This figure might justify eliminating an elementary school teaching position. The committee should also look at the intervening years. Is last year’s birth rate a fluke? Was the birthrate of five years ago repeated or, even, surpassed in the years that followed? In addition to births, the population of children is affected by families moving in and out of Calatrava. The planning committee can access information about home sales and how many families have moved into or out of the city to get an accurate picture of the city’s demographics.
Forestalling maintenance of athletic fields and recreational facilities may seem like a prudent move if, indeed, the population of children has declined significantly. The fact remains that the children of the town will still participate in school athletics and recreational activities. If the fields and facilities deteriorate, other towns may be reluctant to bring their teams to Calatrava to compete. Calatrava teams will have to travel more frequently to complete their athletic schedules, and this would be an expense that might offset the savings gained by ignoring the fields at home. Do adults in the community use these facilities? Does the town have an adult softball league that plays its games on the school athletic fields? Do adults as well as children use the community swimming pool?
Calatrava’s planning committee must dig more deeply into the facts that they have used to make their preliminary recommendations. The taxpayers should demand to know that their tax dollars are being spent in a way that benefits the greatest number of residents.
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