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Topic:
The following is part of a memorandum from the president of Humana University.
"Last year the number of students who enrolled in online degree programs offered by nearby Omni University increased by 50 percent. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the online programs takes place via the Internet. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana University has failed to grow, and the cost of maintaining buildings has increased along with our budget deficit. To address these problems, Humana University will begin immediately to create and actively promote online degree programs like those at Omni. We predict that instituting these online degree programs will help Humana both increase its total enrollment and solve its budget problems."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
موارد زیر بخشی از تفاهم نامه رئیس دانشگاه هومنا است.
سال گذشته تعداد دانشجویان ثبت نام شده در برنامه های آنلاین درجه ارائه شده توسط دانشگاه Omni در نزدیکی تا 50 درصد افزایش یافت. "در همان سال،اوانی کاهش قابل توجهی نسبت به سالهای گذشته در هزینه های خوابگاه و فضای کلاس نشان داد، به احتمال زیاد به دلیل اینکه آموزش در برنامه های آنلاین از طریق اینترنت انجام می شود. در مقابل، طی سه سال گذشته، ثبت نام در دانشگاه هومنا رشدی نداشته است و هزینه نگهداری ساختمان ها همراه با کسری بودجه ما افزایش یافته است. برای رفع این مشکلات، بلافاصله دانشگاه هومنا برنامه های مدرک آنلاین مانند برنامه های اجرا شده در اومنا را شروع کرده و به صورت فعالانه ارتقا می دهد. ما پیش بینی می کنیم که ایجاد این برنامه های آنلاین آنلاین به هومانا کمک می کند تا هم کل تعداد ثبت نام ها را افزایش دهدو هم مشکلات بودجه خود را حل کند. "
پاسخی بنویسید که در آن درباره اینکه چه سوالاتی باید پاسخ داده شود تا تصمیم بگیرید که آیا پیش بینی و استدلالی که بر آن استوار است منطقی است یا نه بحث کنید. حتماً توضیح دهید که چگونه پاسخ این سوالات به ارزیابی پیش بینی کمک می کند.
NOTE: The above topic has wording similar to Argument Task 46 of this Website. However, if you read carefully you will notice that the topic and the task instructions are different. Hence, it is very important to read the topic as well as its instructions completely before you start to write your response.
Strategies
Prediction:
Humana's offering online degree programs will result in increased enrollment and solve its budget programs.
Facts and Assumptions:
a) Omni University had a 50 percent increase in the number of students enrolled in its online programs over last year. The assumption is that this is a large number of students.
b) Omni showed a significant decrease in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space. They don't need dorm and classroom space because instruction takes place via the Internet.
c) Enrollment at Humana University has failed to grow over the past three years. One assumption is that Humana's offerings aren't attractive to prospective students. One might assume that students find Humana too expensive. Humana might have the capacity for no more students.
d) The cost of building maintenance has grown along with its budget deficit. Perhaps the lack of growth has made it difficult for Humana University to meet its maintenance schedule and financial obligations.
Questions:
a) How many students did Omni University have prior to the 50 percent increase? If that number were relatively small, a 50 percent increase isn't impressive.
b) Why were Omni's expenditures for dorms and classrooms so much less than in previous years? The university may have upgraded those facilities a few years ago and have not had to do so in the past few years.
c) Why did Omni begin offering online programs? The school may have been at capacity on campus and began offering online courses to meet the demand.
d) Why has Humana University failed to grow? Its degree programs may not be as relevant as they used to be.
e) Why has the cost of maintaining buildings increased at Humana? These costs may be cyclical. Maybe it has been several years since they have performed significant maintenance on the buildings.
f) What has caused the budget deficit? The cost of doing business has increased while enrollment has remained flat.
g) What evidence does Humana have that online degree programs will increase its enrollment? If Humana's programs were in high demand, its enrollment would not be flat.
h) How will online programs reduce the budget deficit? There are expenses associated with developing online programs. They will need to offer high-demand programs to attract sufficient students to make a dent in the deficit.
Your notes do not have to be exhaustive. As you begin to write your essay, your brain will generate new ideas. Make certain that you keep the directions in mind as you develop your ideas.
NOTE: The above topic has wording similar to Argument Task 46 of this Website. However, if you read carefully you will notice that the topic and the task instructions are different. Hence, it is very important to read the topic as well as its instructions completely before you start to write your response.
Sample 1:
Humana University sees online degree programs as the silver lining in its cloud of financial challenges. The president cites the apparent success of nearby Omni University's foray into that market as justification for his recommendation and prediction. The president would be well- advised to look at some specifics and ask the hard questions before moving forward.
Humana's president should first investigate Omni University's apparent success with its online degree programs. Is a 50 percent increase in enrollment impressive? That depends on the original number of students. If Omni began with 10 students, a 50 percent increase would be 5 students, which is an insufficient number on which to base a new venture. On the other hand, if Omni began with 200 students and increased its enrollment to 300, that would be a rationale for wanting to replicate that success.
Next, the president should ask why Omni University decided to offer online programs in the first place. It may be a case of supply and demand. It may be that more students have demanded Omni programs than the school can meet in its campus location. Online offerings would be a logical solution to that enviable problem. If Humana University hasn't seen that same level of interest in its programs, it may be a prudent move for Humana's president to investigate further before jumping into that market.
Another reason that Humana's president proposes for taking on the challenge of online education is the recent maintenance costs of campus buildings. He assumes that Omni's reduction in those expenses is the reduced need for dormitory and classroom space on its campus. It could just as easily be that Omni completed repairs and maintenance a few years ago and has not needed to repeat them in the last few years. Extensive renovation projects are likely to be cyclical, and Humana finds itself needing to complete those now.
Why has Humana's enrollment remained flat? The school may not be offering programs that reflect current trends in the job market. This, indeed, may be the crux of the problem at Humana. With more high school graduates than ever before going on to some form of higher education, Humana's enrollment should be increasing. Should Humana proceed with plans to offer online degree programs, it may find that students who enroll in those programs will be those who, otherwise, may have come to its campus. Humana may well be left with flat enrollment along with the expense of maintaining its dormitories and classroom buildings. The president's prediction of financial solvency may be a pipe dream.
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