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Topic:
The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has increased in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
موارد زیر در یادداشت معاون جدید رئیس Sartorian، یک شرکت تولید کننده لباس مردانه، آمده است.
"پنج سال پیش، در زمانی که در تهیه منابع قابل اطمینان از پارچه پشمی با کیفیت بالا مشکل داشتیم، تولید پالتو آلپاکا را متوقف کردیم. اکنون که یک عرضه کننده جدید پارچه داریم، باید تولید خود را از سر بگیریم. این کت باید فروش بسیار خوبی داشته باشد : از آنجایی که ما پنج سال است کت آلپاکا را ارائه نمی دهیم و از آنجایی که رقیب اصلی ما دیگر اور کت آلپاکا تولید نمی کند، تقاضای مشتری زیادی وجود خواهد داشت. همچنین، از آنجایی که قیمت اکثر انواع پوشاک هرساله طی 5 سال گذشته افزایش یافته است، مشتریان مایل به پرداخت قیمت های خیلی بالاتری برای اورکت آلپاکا نسبت به پنج سال پیش خواهند بود و سود شرکت ما افزایش خواهد یافت. "
پاسخی بنویسید و در آن توضیح دهید که چه مستندات خاصی برای ارزیابی بحث لازم است و شرح دهید که چگونه این مستندات می تواند بحث را تضعیف یا تقویت کند.
NOTE: The above topic has wording similar to Argument Tasks 88 and 89 of this Website. However, if you read carefully you will notice that the topic and the task instructions are different. Hence, it is very important to read the topic as well as its instructions completely before you start to write your response.
Strategies
Argument:
Based on the ability to obtain high quality fabric and an opportunity to corner the market, Sartorian will reintroduce its alpaca overcoat.
In developing your response, reveal the specific evidence that Sartorian needs to decide whether or not reintroducing its alpaca coat is a sound idea.
Facts and Assumptions:
a) Five years ago, Sartorian discontinued production of its alpaca overcoat because it lacked a reliable supply of high quality wool fabric. There must be very few suppliers of alpaca wool fabric.
b) Sartorian has a new supplier of fabric. A new producer has come about or the quality of a previous supplier has improved enough to satisfy Sartorian.
c) Sartorian has not offered an alpaca coat for five years. The company assumes that its customers are eager for the company's new coat.
d) Sartorian's major competitor no longer makes an alpaca coat. Sartorian may assume that the competitor's coat did not measure up, and customers stopped buying it. Sartorian needs to consider that the competitor's coat may have been lovely, but demand for alpaca coats or the cost of production made it unwise to continue producing them.
e) The price of most types of clothing has increased in each of the past five years. The assumption is that customers have become used to higher prices and will be agreeable to higher prices for the alpaca coat. Sartorian believes that higher prices for its coat will increase company profits.
Your notes do not have to be exhaustive. As you begin to write your essay, your brain will generate new ideas. Make certain that you keep the directions in mind as you develop your ideas.
NOTE: The above topic has wording similar to Argument Tasks 88 and 89 of this Website. However, if you read carefully you will notice that the topic and the task instructions are different. Hence, it is very important to read the topic as well as its instructions completely before you start to write your response.
Sample 1:
Sartorian appears eager to jump back into the alpaca coat market after a five-year absence. The company must have a strong emotional attachment to the coat they used to make and sell with some success. One is left to wonder if discontinuing the coat left a gap in their clothing line that it has been unable to fill with another garment. The lack of competition in the alpaca coat market seems a further incentive to resume production. Sartorian has drawn some conclusions that bear further scrutiny before taking what is probably an expensive step.
The clothing manufacturer assumes that its customer loyalty guarantees the success of its alpaca coat. The stores who formerly sold the coat may have replaced it with other outer garments with which they are very satisfied. As a result, those stores may not have the money to stock the new alpaca coats. Sartorian should survey the buyers for retail outlets that sold their previous coat as well as any new stores. The manufacturer may discover that it cannot generate sales sufficient to justify reintroducing the alpaca coat.
Sartorian seems encouraged by the lack of competition in the alpaca coat market. Its only competitor has ceased production of its own coat. Sartorian would be well-advised to interview the other manufacturer to uncover the reason for stopping production. The truth of the matter may be that alpaca coats have fallen completely out of favor. The pent-up customer demand that Sartorian is anticipating may not exist.
The final justification that Sartorian cites is the overall increase in clothing prices over the past five years. The company assumes that they will be able to demand higher prices for its alpaca coat, which will help the company's bottom line. The truth may be that individual clothing budgets may be strained by the rise in prices, and there is no money left over with which to buy an expensive alpaca coat.
Sartorian's vice president has some research to do before jumping back into the alpaca coat market. He needs evidence of continuing demand for the product. Cornering the market for a clothing item that won't sell would not be a feather in this vice president's hat.
Sample 2:
The vice president of a clothing manufacturing company asserts that they should resume the production of their deluxe alpaca coats, the production of which had been discontinued five years ago due to the non-availability of high quality wool fabric. The availability of a new fabric supplier is cited as the reason for this recommencement of production. The arguer utilizes two assumptions to conclude that the coats will sell very well in the market. The first assumption is that there would be a pent-up customer demand for alpaca coats in the market as neither they nor their major competitor has provided alpaca coats in the market in the recent past. The second assumption is that the customers would be willing to pay higher prices for alpaca coats as there has been a rise in the prices of clothing in the last five years. Despite the assumptions made by the arguer, the argument is fallacious in several respects.
The argument has been rendered weak due to unavailability of information related to the fabric supplier. As long as the cost and quality of the fabric being supplied by this supplier is not known, it would be erroneous to assume that the alpaca coats made from the material supplied by this fabric supplier would be of a good quality. Additionally, it is possible that the quality of the material being supplied would be good, but the supplier may not be able to meet the requirements of the company leading to problems during the production of the alpaca coats. Even if the supplier is able to meet the requirements of the company, there is no mention of the credentials of the supplier related to his trustworthiness and adherence to deadlines. Therefore, the contention that the production of alpaca coats can be resumed just because the company has found a new fabric supplier is largely fallacious.
The assumption that there would be a pent-up demand for alpaca coats in the market is inadequately supported by the evidence that has been provided by the arguer. It is likely that the production of alpaca coats had been stopped because they were no longer in demand and this would also explain why Sartorian’s major competitor has not produced alpaca coats in the past. Moreover, it is likely that alpaca coats have been replaced in the market by coats that are cheap, but of a better quality. Furthermore, it may be possible that alpaca coats are no longer in vogue and hence, there is a diminished demand for them in the market. Therefore, the assumption that there would be a pent-up demand for alpaca coats in the market could not be substantiated by the arguer due to lack of credible evidence in its support.
Finally, the assumption that people would be willing to pay a higher price for the alpaca coats is grossly unconvincing despite the fact that the prices of clothing are on the rise. In the past five years, it is likely that the people have got used to buying and using a different style of coat. The alpaca coats will have to face stiff opposition from such coats which would be having strong consumer support. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that people will discontinue the use of popular coats and spend a high amount in trying out the alpaca coats. Moreover, if the production of alpaca coats had been discontinued five years ago due to lack of consumer demand, then it is unlikely that this demand will rise overnight and that the people would be willing to buy these coats at a high price. Additionally, if the cost of the wool being supplied is very high, it is unlikely that the company would be able to accrue high profits from the sales of alpaca coats. Therefore, the assumption that the company will be able to rake in high profits from the sale of alpaca coats is unjustifiable.
In view of the above, it is evident that the argument is unpersuasive in its present form due to lack of substantial evidence that proves beyond doubt that the production of alpaca coats would indeed be a profitable venture for Sartorian.
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