GRE Argument Topic 149

GRE Argument Topic 149

Topic:

The following appeared in a memo from the marketing director of Top Dog Pet Stores.  

"Five years ago Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazine Exotic Pets Monthly. Their stores saw sales increase by 15 percent after their ads began appearing in the magazine. The three Fish Emporium stores in Gulf City saw an even greater increase than that. Because Top Dog Pet Stores is based in Gulf City, it seems clear that we should start placing our own ads in Exotic Pets Monthly. If we do so, we will be sure to reverse the recent trend of declining sales and start making a profit again."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

موارد زیر در یادداشتی از مدیر بازاریابی فروشگاه های Top Dog Pet   آمده است.

"پنج سال پیش Fish Emporium تبلیغات خود را در مجله Exotic Pets Monthly آغاز کرد. پس از شروع تبلیغات در مجله، فروشگاه های آنها  دیدند که فروش آنها 15 درصد افزایش یافته است. سه فروشگاه Fish Emporium در Gulf City حتی افزایشی بیشتر از آن داشتند.  از آنجایی که فروشگاه های حیوانات Top Dog Pet در گلف سیتی مستقر هستند، به نظر می رسد واضح است که ما باید تبلیغات خود را در ماهنامه (حیوانات خانگی) Exotic Pets  آغاز کنیم. در صورت انجام این کار، مطمئنا روند اخیر کاهش فروش را معکوس کرده و دوباره سود کسب خواهیم کرد. "

پاسخی بنویسید که در آن مفروضات بیان شده و / یا بی دلیل را بررسی می کنید. حتماً توضیح دهید که چگونه استدلال به این فرضیات بستگی دارد و در صورت عدم اثبات فرضیات، چه برداشتی از استدلال خواهد شد.

NOTE: The above topic has wording similar to Argument Task 150 of this Website. However, if you read carefully you will notice that the topic and the task instructions are different. Hence, it is very important to read the topic as well as its instructions completely before you start to write your response.

Strategies
A good place to start your analysis is by creating a statement that reveals the main idea of the argument. Although the writer is creating an argument, he may ultimately be stating a position, making a recommendation, or making a prediction. It may be helpful for you to determine which of these formats is most evident in the argument.
Based on an increase in sales for Fish Emporium after it advertised in Exotic Pets Monthly, the marketing director of Top Dog Pet Stores recommends that they advertise in the same publication in order to make the business profitable again.

Assumptions:
a) Advertising in Exotic Pets Monthly will increase sales for Top Dog Pet Stores.
b) Fish Emporium continues to experience higher sales.
c) Fish Emporium sales increased as a direct result of placing ads in Exotic Pets Monthly.
d) The increase in Fish Emporium sales in Gulf City stores was significantly higher than the 15% increase in their other stores.
e) Failure to advertise in Exotic Pets Monthly is the reason for declining sales and lack of profit for Top Dog Pet Stores.
f) All Top Dog Pet Stores have declining sales and profits.

Alternative explanations:
a) After the first rise in sales, Fish Emporium's sales have remained flat.
b) Fish Emporium made other changes at the same time that they began advertising in Exotic Pets Monthly.
c) The additional increase in profits in Fish Emporium's Gulf City stores was too small to be significant.
d) Top Dog Pet Stores may have made decisions or taken action that has resulted in a decline in sales.
e) Some Top Dog Pet Stores are profitable.
After completing these steps, you should have enough material to write your analysis. Remember that you are not creating a position of your own; you are evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of the existing argument. You do not have to include all of the points that you have created in your prewriting. In fact, during the process of drafting your analysis, other ideas may come to mind, and, if they strengthen your analysis, you should include them.

NOTE: The above topic has wording similar to Argument Task 150 of this Website. However, if you read carefully you will notice that the topic and the task instructions are different. Hence, it is very important to read the topic as well as its instructions completely before you start to write your response.

Sample 1:

The owner of Top Dog Pet Stores has created some assumptions about Fish Emporium's increase in sales that he believes apply to his own business. He should examine his assumptions to ensure that no other explanations for the increased sales exist before taking actions that may be costly and ineffective.

The owner of Top Dog Pet stores assumes that Fish Emporium increased its sales by placing ads in Exotic Pets Monthly. In fact, Fish Emporium may have made some other changes at the same time that are the real reason for greater sales. The owner may have added new products that are in high demand. They may have rearranged their displays to make higher priced goods more visible. Perhaps they cleaned up the store or hired more knowledgeable employees who made it easier for customers to find everything they need. In contrast, Top Dog Pet Stores may have failed to take similar actions to improve sales. The stores may be dirty, stocked with old or outdated merchandise, and manned by associates who have little knowledge about the products in the stores. In that case, no amount of advertising in any publication is likely to have any lasting positive effect on Top Dog's sales or profits.

The first rule of real estate is "location, location, location". The same is very often true in business. Customers must be able to find the store and park nearby. Fish Emporium's stores may be in ideal locations in Gulf City. They may be in popular malls or busy downtown shopping areas with plenty of free parking. Top Dog Pet Stores might be off the beaten path, making it difficult for customers to find them. The owner of Top Dog Pet Stores assumes that Gulf City is an ideal location for improving his business, and he bases his belief on the apparent success of Fish Emporium. Fish Emporium may have saturated the pet store market in Gulf City making Top Dog's success unlikely at best.

A 15 percent increase in sales sounds significant. Whether or not it is depends on what sales were when Fish Emporium began its advertising campaign in Exotic Pets Monthly. The owner of Top Dog Pet Stores may assume that the increase is on top of already satisfactory sales. If sales had fallen to an all-time low before the advertising campaign, the increase may have simply returned sales to previous levels. However, if sales were good prior to the ads, then the increase is something to celebrate. The even greater increase in sales at the Gulf City stores might be minor, in which case, Top Dog should not base its decision to run a similar campaign on that increase. Fish Emporium could have run a special promotion when it advertised in the magazine, attracting new customers and leading to a temporary uptick in sales. They may not have sustained the increase over the five-year time span even though the argument may lead to that assumption.

The reader may assume that all Top Dog Pet Stores are experiencing a decline in sales and profits. Companies with stores in different locations are servants to the vagaries of the marketplace. Some stores may be located in towns that are experiencing an economic downturn, and people cannot afford to spend money on pets and pet supplies. In contrast, other stores may be located in towns or cities where the economy is booming, and residents have the discretionary income to spend on treats for their pets. The owners may be better off by advertising in local newspapers or on local radio and television stations where sales have fallen off. Tailoring its advertising for each location may be a better strategy than relying on one outlet for its promotions.

It is common to assume that the steps to success for one business apply to all businesses or, at least, all similar businesses. This assumption can lead to costly mistakes. All conditions should be examined before spending money on any advertising.


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