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Topic:
The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, the proposed new jazz club in Monroe, the C-Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight at 7 P.M. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
موارد زیر به عنوان بخشی از درخواست وام مشاغل کوچک توسط گروهی از توسعه دهندگان در شهر مونرو نوشته شده است.
یک کلوپ موسیقی جاز در مونرو یک کار فوق العاده سودآوری خواهد بود. در حال حاضر، نزدیکترین کلوپ جاز در فاصله 65 مایلی قرار دارد؛ بنابراین، کلوپ جاز جدید پیشنهادی در مونرو، C-Note، بازار محلی را کاملاً به خود اختصاص داده است. به علاوه، موسیقی جاز در مونرو بسیار محبوب است: تابستان گذشته بیش از 100000 نفر در جشنواره جاز سالانه مونرو شرکت کردند. چندین نوازنده موسیقی معروف جاز در مونرو زندگی می کنند. و بالاترین امتیاز برنامه رادیویی در مونرو "جاز شبانه" است که هر هفته ساعت 7 بعد از ظهر پخش می شود. سرانجام، مطالعه ایی در سطح کشور نشان می دهد که یک طرفدار معمولی جاز سالانه نزدیک به 1000 دلار برای سرگرمی های جاز هزینه می کند. "
پاسخی بنویسید و در آن توضیح دهید که چه مستندات خاصی برای ارزیابی بحث لازم است و شرح دهید که چگونه این مستندات می تواند بحث را تضعیف یا تقویت کند.
NOTE: The above topic has wording similar to Argument Tasks 93, 95 and 156 of this Website. However, if you read carefully you will notice that the topic and the task instructions are different. Hence, it is very important to read the topic as well as its instructions completely before you start to write your response.
Strategies
The first step in performing your analysis consists of identifying the texts’ key point, recommendation, prediction or hypothesis. All the other arguments and assumptions are designed to support this central claim. In this case, the author attempts to demonstrate that “A jazz club in Monroe would be profitable”.
The next step would involve creating a statement that summarizes the text by including the central claim and its supporting arguments.
The authors of the loan application argue that a jazz club in Monroe would be profitable because the town boasts a big jazz fan base and the nearest competitor is located very far away.
When considering the evidence that is necessary to support the arguments outlined in the text, it is important to keep in mind that arguments are based on assumptions – points that are taken to be true, without need for proof. This is what you need to look for – explicit and implicit assumptions, since they require evidence that is not already listed in the text.
Explicit assumptions can be broken down into or supported by implicit assumptions.
Assumptions:
i) Explicit Assumption: A jazz club in Monroe would be profitable
Implicit Assumptions:
a) The jazz market is profitable
b) The club will make a substantial profit
c) The market size is sufficient to support the club
ii) Explicit Assumption: A jazz club in Monroe would have the market all to itself
Implicit Assumptions:
a) The main competitor is too distant to attract the Monroe population
b) The Monroe inhabitants that are going to the distant jazz club will choose C-Note based on proximity
c) There are no other competing jazz venues (cafes, bars etc.)
iii) Explicit Assumption: There is a big jazz fan base in Monroe
Implicit Assumptions:
a) The number of festival attendants accurately reflects the size of the market in Monroe
b) The rating of Jazz Nightly accurately reflects the popularity of jazz in Monroe
c) National survey reflects local preferences
iv) Explicit Assumption: Jazz fans will be willing to spend money on the club
Implicit Assumptions:
a) A great size of the average sums fans spend on jazz during the year will go into clubbing
b) Monroe’s inhabitants can afford the club prices
After having established your assumptions, you can find the evidence that is needed to evaluate the argument by considering what proof is necessary to validate each implicit assumption.
Evidence:
a) National jazz market statistics
b) C-Note’s revenue and cash flow estimations compared with the costs of funding and operating the club.
c) Comparison of the minimum viable population necessary to support the club with the Monroe population (jazz market size)
d) Number of Monroe jazz fans frequenting the club situated 65 miles away from Monroe, reported to the size of the local jazz market
e) Number of jazz venues in the area
f) The percentage from the festival attendants that reside in Monroe
g) Jazz Nightly’s audience ratings compared to Monroe’s population size
h) The jazz radio’s ratings compared to those of the competing stations
i) The percentage of money spent on clubbing from the estimated 1000 $ that the average jazz fan spends per year on jazz entertainment
j) Monroe’s income statistics reported to C-Note’s ticket prices
k) Comparison of the survey demographics with Monroe’s demographics
Strategies (2)
Regardless of the approach you take, consider the following steps:
a) Is there an alternative explanation for the events in question that can invalidate, either in whole or in part, the explanation given in the passage?
b) How can I break the argument into its component parts to understand how they create the whole argument?
c) Can I identify the line of reasoning used to create the argument?
d) What does the author of the argument assume to be true for the argument to be true?
e) Does the line of reasoning validate the conclusion?
f) Can I imagine an example that refutes any or several of the statements in the argument?
g) Am I able to evaluate the argument based on the quality of the facts and reasons presented in it?
Based on your responses to all or some of these questions, you must present a well-developed evaluation of the argument. You should take brief notes when you identify the arguments claims, assumptions, and conclusion. Jot down as many alternative explanations as you can along with additional evidence that might support or refute the claims in the argument. Finally, list the changes in the argument that would make the reasoning more solid. It is more important to be specific than it is to have a long list of evidence and examples.
This argument uses facts, figures, and anecdotal evidence to obtain a loan for the purpose of establishing a jazz music club in Monroe.
In developing your response, you are asked to identify what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how that evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
What conclusions and assumptions are either explicit or implied in the original argument?
Facts and Assumptions:
a) Over 100,000 people attended Monroe’s annual jazz festival last summer. This fact leads to the assumption that at least as many people will attend the next festival in Monroe. This assumption underlies the claim that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe. The weather for last summer’s jazz festival may have been perfect. There is no way to guarantee the conditions and, therefore, the attendance will remain the same every year. There may have been no competing events occurring at the same time.
b) The typical jazz fan spends close to $1000 per year on jazz entertainment. This fact leads to the assumption that jazz fans will spend a portion of that money in Monroe. $1000 is a nationwide average. How much do the local residents spend on jazz entertainment?
c) Because the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away, the C-Note would have the local market all to itself. This assumption underlies the claim that a jazz music club in Monroe would be tremendously profitable. Local citizens may travel to other jazz clubs for weekend getaways or to hear musicians not featured at the local club. How large is the local market? The town that is 65 miles away may have other amenities that draw jazz patrons: great restaurants, ease of parking, shopping, motels
d) “Jazz Nightly”, airing on the local radio station at 7:00 P.M., is the highest-rated show in Monroe. This fact leads to the assumption that most people in Monroe listen to jazz. This assumption underlies the claim that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe. Missing is information about the radio station’s lineup of programs. A local station could have limited hours on the air, and the other programs may have little or no appeal to the local citizens. We also don’t know how long the program lasts. If it runs until 10:00 P.M., it leaves little else for people to listen to. People may listen to other stations during the other hours of the day and tune in to the local station only during the jazz music show.
e) Several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe. The word several is open to interpretation. The implication is that these musicians will be happy to perform at the new club. These might be retired musicians; perhaps they live in a nursing home.
Your notes do not have to be exhaustive. As you begin to write your essay, your brain will generate new ideas. Make certain that you keep the directions in mind as you develop your ideas. Use as many or as few paragraphs as you consider appropriate for your argument, but create a new paragraph when you move on to a new idea or example of support for your position. The GRE readers are not looking for a specific number of ideas or paragraphs. Instead, they are reading to determine the level of understanding of the topic and the complexity with which you respond.
You are free to organize and develop your response in any way you think will enable you to effectively communicate your evaluation of the argument. You may recall writing strategies that you learned in high school or a writing-intensive course that you took in college, but it is not necessary to employ any of those strategies. It is important that your ideas follow a logical progression and display strong critical thinking.
NOTE: The above topic has wording similar to Argument Tasks 93, 95 and 156 of this Website. However, if you read carefully you will notice that the topic and the task instructions are different. Hence, it is very important to read the topic as well as its instructions completely before you start to write your response.
Sample 1:
The authors of the loan application argue that a jazz club in Monroe would be profitable because the town boasts a big jazz fan base and the nearest competitor is located very far away. Before submitting the loan application, the group of developers would need to consider additional information, such as demographics, the competitor’s prices, the real size of the Monroe jazz audience, and their willingness to spend money on jazz club entrance. Such an assessment would allow them to evaluate whether the business idea is viable in the first place.
The first bits of evidence that are lacking in the loan application are population statistics and their correlation with the club’s funding and maintenance cost. The authors need to devise what are the minimum running costs and outline expected profit margins and couple those with the potential size of the jazz market in Monroe. This data should outline whether Monroe’s jazz market size is sufficient to support the club. If Monroe’s population is not great enough to meet the minimum viable population criteria, then the claim that a jazz club in Monroe would be profitable is not sustainable. Should the population criteria be met, the recommendation of building a jazz club in Monroe would garner some merit, but further data would be needed to establish the profitability of the club. For this purpose, the group of developers should compare C-Note’s revenue and cash flow estimations with the costs of funding and operating the club. This would help to establish the theoretical financial viability of the Jazz club. The developers should keep in mind that in addition to these types of estimations, profitability is also highly dependent on the overall state of the market. As such, national jazz market statistics will showcase people’s interest and willingness to spend money on jazz entertainment and paraphernalia. If the jazz market is under decline, as a National Endowment for the Arts study has discovered, a jazz club in Monroe might not be profitable in the long run. On the other hand, if the market shows signs of improvement, then the developer’s propositions would be greatly strengthened by this fact.
The group of developers bases their business idea on Monroe having a big fan base for jazz. They justify their assumptions by providing a local jazz festival attendance rate and the popularity of the local jazz radio station. The information they provide is incomplete –the investors evaluating this application will not be able to see what percentage of the jazz festival attendants were locals. This data would help better showcase the size of Monroe’s jazz market. If a great number of the attendants were local residents, then the assumption of a big jazz fan base in Monroe would be validated. If the data should reveal a low percentage of local residents from the total number of festival participants, then the claim of a large jazz fan base in Monroe would be weakened, which in turn will affect the expected profitability of the club. The group of developers brings another argument in favor of the popularity of jazz in Monroe, namely the ratings of the local jazz radio station. To verify if the rating of Jazz Nightly accurately reflects the popularity of jazz in Monroe, the developers would first need to report those ratings to the population of the town. This data would help them identify whether a significant part of the Monroe population listens to jazz, in which case their claims would be substantiated, or whether the radio listening people form just a small part of the population, in which case, the high radio ratings would not be indicative of the entire population’s preferences.
When making their argument, the group of developers also assumes that a jazz club in Monroe will have the market all to itself because the nearest competitor is located at a great distance. To be able to establish whether this is the case, the loan applicants would have to compare C-Note and their competitor based on their prices, accessibility and reputation. By assessing what percentage of Monroe’s jazz fan base frequents the club situated 65 miles away the investors can ascertain what part of the market already belongs to the competitor. In addition to this evidence, the developers should also provide data about the number of jazz venues in the area such as jazz cafes or bars, before concluding that the market would belong solely to the C-Note club. If indeed there are no other competitors in the area, C-note can enjoy market monopoly and the assumption that the club will be profitable becomes more plausible. However, should different jazz venues exist in the area, the developers would need to adjust their estimations and consider what size of the market belongs to the competitors and develop competitive strategies to be able to make the desired profits.
Another argument brought in to support the profitability of opening a jazz club in Monroe is a national survey that indicates the amounts of money the average jazz fan is willing to spend on jazz entertainment each year. To be able to assess how this information is related to the Monroe audience, the author would need to compare the survey demographics to those of the Monroe population. This data should be able to reveal whether the people of the survey are indicative for the jazz club’s intended target audience, a fact which would make the survey findings applicable, or whether the two groups of people are radically different, in which case the survey would have no bearing on how the jazz fan base of Monroe would spend their money. Additionally, the authors should investigate what percentage of that money is spent for clubbing activities. Should it become evident that jazz fans like to spend a lot on clubs then that information would bode well for the future of C-Note. However, if the jazz fans in the study prefer to spend their money on different type of jazz events and paraphernalia, then the developers would need to provide additional data that would demonstrate that the people of Monroe would be willing to attend C-Note and develop good market and pricing strategies to bolster attendance.
All in all, the group of developers that argue for the profitability of opening a jazz club in Monroe stands a better chance of supporting their claim by providing a thorough market analysis coupled with a financial plan. They would stand a better chance at gaining a loan by providing a complete business plan and developing competitive strategies that would show that they can not only identify business opportunities but also know how to make the best of them.
Sample 2:
On the surface, the argument for developing a jazz music club in Monroe appears to be compelling. Monroe seems to have all of the requirements – location, musicians, and fan base – to make the club a success. Some of the information, however, is either insufficient or suspect. Investors should take a closer look at the information to determine its validity before deciding that the club is a good idea for Monroe.
In real estate, there are three factors to consider: location, location, and location. Because the nearest jazz music club is sixty-five miles away, Monroe seems to have the location all locked up. On the other hand, there may be amenities in the distant town that make it attractive enough to drive there for jazz performances. Perhaps it has great restaurants, shopping centers, and hotels that make it perfect for a weekend getaway. Have the developers selected a site in Monroe for the club? Will it interfere with other businesses or disturb nearby residents?
The fact that over 100,000 fans attended last year’s jazz festival in Monroe is important if that is a figure that has been repeated over a number of years. If it were Monroe’s first festival, the novelty may have been a draw. The weather may have been perfect as well. If there were no other jazz related events occurring during that time, Monroe’s festival may have benefitted from that. The weather and paucity of other entertainment likely won’t hold true every year. If other towns are aware of the success that Monroe experienced, they could schedule competing events. Was the jazz music festival a profitable event for the town? The costs associated with hosting such an event may not have been recouped, despite the high attendance. The argument fails to mention if those fans in Monroe had a satisfactory experience at the jazz festival. A survey that asks for information about the quality of performances, the ease of obtaining accommodations, the price of tickets, the variety of venders, and the likelihood of returning next year would create a better basis for promoting the jazz music club. Unless those 100,000 people are residents of Monroe, continuous support for a club is likely to come from a much smaller number of people.
On a positive note, Monroe has what appears to be a strong fan base for jazz musicians. Several well-known jazz musicians live there, and the local radio station’s jazz-based program is its most highly-rated broadcast. Because jazz musicians reside in Monroe is no guarantee of the club’s success. Perhaps those musicians choose to live in Monroe to escape the pressure to perform and could, ultimately, resent the establishment of a club. They may be retired or living in a nursing home. The radio station could have limited hours of operation or air other shows for which there is no audience in Monroe. The broadcast of “Jazz Nightly” begins at 7:00 P.M., but it may air for the rest of the evening, leaving no opening for other types of music to go over the airways to the citizens of Monroe.
Finally, the fact about the spending habits of jazz music fans is misleading. The figure is based on a nationwide survey. How many jazz fans are there in the country? How many of Monroe’s citizens are jazz fans? A small portion, if any, of the $1000 will likely be spent in Monroe. A more realistic dollar amount could be discovered by surveying the local jazz fans.
Altogether there is too little specific information about the jazz climate in Monroe for the argument to carry sufficient weight with the bankers. The developers must do more research that is specific to Monroe to create a business plan that will make their proposal more realistic and have wider appeal to the investors.
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