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Topic:
The following appeared in an e-mail sent by the marketing director of the Classical Shakespeare Theatre of Bardville.
"Over the past ten years, there has been a 20 percent decline in the size of the average audience at Classical Shakespeare Theatre productions. In spite of increased advertising, we are attracting fewer and fewer people to our shows, causing our profits to decrease significantly. We must take action to attract new audience members. The best way to do so is by instituting a 'Shakespeare in the Park' program this summer. Two years ago the nearby Avon Repertory Company started a 'Free Plays in the Park' program, and its profits have increased 10 percent since then. If we start a 'Shakespeare in the Park' program, we can predict that our profits will increase, too."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
موارد زیر در ایمیلی که توسط مدیر بازاریابی تئاتر کلاسیک شکسپیر بردویل ارسال شده امده است.
"طی ده سال گذشته، 20 درصد کاهش در تعداد متوسط تماشاگران تئاتر کلاسیک شکسپیر وجود داشته است. علی رغم افزایش تبلیغات، ما افراد کمتری را به نمایش های خود جذب می کنیم واین باعث می شود سود ما به میزان قابل توجهی کاهش یابد. ما باید برای جذب مخاطبان جدید اقدامی انجام دهیم. بهترین راه برای این کار اجرای برنامه "شکسپیر در پارک" در تابستان امسال است. دو سال پیش شرکت آوانریپورتری برنامه "نمایش های رایگان در پارک" را شروع کرد، و از آن زمان سود آن 10 درصد افزایش یافته است. اگر ما برنامه "Shakespeare in the Park" (شکسپیر در پارک) را شروع کنیم، می توانیم پیش بینی کنیم که سود ما نیز افزایش خواهد یافت. "
پاسخی بنویسید که در آن درباره اینکه چه سوالاتی باید پاسخ داده شود تا تصمیم بگیرید که آیا توصیه پیشنهادی می تواند نتیجه پیش بینی شده را ایجاد کند. حتماً توضیح دهید که چگونه پاسخ این سوالات به ارزیابی پیش بینی کمک می کند.
Strategies
A good place to start your analysis is by creating a statement that reveals the main idea of the argument. Although the writer is creating an argument, he may ultimately be stating a position, making a recommendation, or making a prediction. It may be helpful for you to determine which of these formats is most evident in the argument.
The marketing director believes that imitating Avon Repertory Company’s Free Plays in the Park program will increase attendance at Classical Shakespeare Theatre productions.
Assumptions:
a) Profits are tied to attendance.
b) The decline in attendance at Classical Shakespeare Theatre productions has occurred steadily over the past ten years.
c) They are advertising in locations and publications that have worked for them in the past.
d) Avon Repertory Company’s profits have increased because of their Free Plays in the Park program.
Questions:
a) Has Classical Shakespeare Theatre changed its repertoire?
b) Should the company change its repertoire?
c) Has the company changed the type of advertising it does?
d) Has Avon Repertory Company taken other measures to increase profits?
e) Does one particular year account for most of the decline?
f) Do any particular plays draw larger audiences than others?
After completing these steps, you should have enough material to write your analysis. Remember that you are not creating a position of your own; you are evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of the existing argument. You do not have to include all of the points that you have created in your prewriting. In fact, during the process of drafting your analysis, other ideas may come to mind, and, if they strengthen your analysis, you should include them.
Sample 1:
Declining audience numbers is a legitimate concern for Classical Shakespeare Company. Efforts on the part of the company appear to have been ineffective, so they propose to duplicate the actions of Avon Repertory Company whose success appears to be on the rise. There is always danger associated with abandoning what one has always done. Change may be necessary, but the shape of that change must be carefully considered. One size does not always fit all. The marketing director needs answers to several questions before making the suggested changes.
An average is derived by adding a specific number of figures and dividing the total by that number. Some numbers are higher than the average, and some are lower. There may be a significant span between the highest and lowest numbers. Have some of Classical Shakespeare Theatre’s productions had very poor attendance while others have standing-room-only attendance? This theater company may be able to solve attendance problems by discontinuing production of the plays that draw small audiences and increasing the number of performances of the plays that draw large audiences. The company may also benefit from changing the times of the performances. Are the largest reductions in attendance occurring consistently for performances on certain days of the work or specific times of the day? Changing days and times would be a relatively simple fix for the attendance problem. Avon Repertory Company may have been paying attention to these details and plays to full houses as a result.
Virtually all commercial enterprises use advertising to encourage the public to buy its product or use its service. Classical Shakespeare Company has used advertising in the past and has recently expanded its advertising in an effort to increase attendance at its productions. This tactic appears to have failed. Has the company changed the type of advertising it does or advertised in different publications? This theater company should research the reach of the advertising, perhaps by surveying their audience members. They may need to shift advertising dollars from print sources to radio or television. If the company has increased its television advertising, its ads may be appearing at times in the station's rotation when theater goers are not tuned in. If they are advertising upcoming productions that historically have had low attendance, they are likely to have wasted their money. The company may have changed advertising agencies, and the new agency has no experience creating ads for the entertainment industry.
Rather than look outside of the theater to improve attendance, Classical Shakespeare Company might look at the condition of the theater itself. Has the company taken steps to ensure that the audience enjoys attending performances at its theater? The seats may be worn and uncomfortable. The heating and cooling system may work inefficiently. If the audience finds it difficult to sit in the seats, or they are too cold or too warm, they may abandon this company for another that has renovated, making the theater experience more pleasurable. In fact, the condition of its theater may be the reason that Avon Repertory Company has increased profits rather than its Free Plays in the Park. Is the company’s payroll too large? Employees are a big expense, and producing plays requires a variety of skilled workers in addition to the actors themselves. On- stage talent usually receive the biggest paychecks. This can be a double-edged sword. A theater company can hire better actors in an effort to draw bigger audiences, or it can hire lesser-known actors to reduce the overall payroll. If the payroll is smaller, the company's bottom line looks better. The risk is smaller audiences. Theater companies must strike a delicate balance when casting its productions.
A theater company experiencing financial uncertainty may only ensure its demise by taking on a project that has no proven benefit. Before imitating Avon Repertory Company’s Free Plays in the Park, the Classical Shakespeare Company should ask if that program directly contributes to Avon’s increase in profits. Classical Shakespeare Company should scrutinize its past and current practices and answer some tough questions before adopting the suggestion in the argument.
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