GRE Argument Topic 3

GRE Argument Topic 3

Topic:

The following appeared as a letter to the editor from a Central Plaza store owner.

"Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing while the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically. Many Central Plaza store owners believe that the decrease in their business is due to the number of skateboard users in the plaza. There has also been a dramatic increase in the amount of litter and vandalism throughout the plaza. Thus, we recommend that the city prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza. If skateboarding is prohibited here, we predict that business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

موارد زیر به عنوان نامه ای از طرف مالک یک فروشگاه در بازار بزرگ مرکزی Central Plaza به سردبیر ارائه شده است. "طی دو سال گذشته، تعداد خریداران در Central Plaza به طور مداوم در حال کاهش بوده است در حالی که محبوبیت اسکیت بورد در این مرکز به طور چشمگیری افزایش یافته است. بسیاری از مالکان فروشگاه های Central Plaza معتقدند که رکود در کسب و کار آنها به دلیل افزایش تعداد اسکیت بورد سواران در این بازار است. همچنین در سراسر مجتمع تجاری شاهد افزایش چشمگیر  ریختن زباله و تخریب اموال عمومی بوده ایم. بنابراین، توصیه می کنیم که شورای شهر اسکیت بورد را در Central Plaza ممنوع کند. اگر اسکیت بورد در اینجا ممنوع باشد، پیش بینی می کنیم که تجارت در Central Plaza به سطوح بالایی همچون گذشته برگردد."
پاسخی بنویسید که در آن درباره اینکه چه سوالاتی باید پاسخ داده شود تا تصمیم بگیرید که آیا  توصیه پیشنهادی می تواند نتیجه پیش بینی شده را ایجاد کند. مطمئن شوید که پاسخ های شما به این سوالات به  ارزیابی توصیه کمک خواهد کرد.

NOTE: The above topic has wording similar to Argument Task 166 of this Website. However, if you read carefully you will notice that the topic and the task instructions are different. Hence, it is very important to read the topic as well as its instructions completely before you start to write your response.

 

•    ادعای این فروشنده بر مبنای هیچ تحقیقی نیست و شاید دلایل دیگری مانند قیمت، تنوع، کیفیت و ... باعث کاهش مشتریان گردیده باشد.
•    با وجود تاکید این فروشنده که دیگر فروشنده ها هم نظر با او هستند، باید نظرهای دیگر مالکین کسب و کارها، از طرف یک فرد بیطرف و با روش تحقیقی مناسب، بررسی گردد.
•    مشخص نیست که این فرد مالک چه کسب و کاری است، و معلوم نیست کسب و کار هم صنف های او هم به همین معضل دچار هستند یا خیر؟ صنف های دیگر مانند فروشگاه های ورزشی، شاید از حضور اسکیت بورد سواران خوشحال باشند و سود بیشتری نسبت به گذشته کرده باشند.
•    رابطه بین اسکیت بورد سواران با افزایش خرابکاری و افزایش زباله دقیقا مشخص نیست و دلایل و شواهدی هم مبنی بر رابطه این دو، ارائه نگردیده است. شاید دلایل دیگری برای این امر وجود داشته باشد.
•    لزوما ممانعت از حضور اسکیت بورد سواران باعث افزایش مشتریان نمیشود. این ادعا باید اثبات گردد که با ممنوعیت حضور اسکیت بورد سواران، مشتریان بیشتر میشوند. ضمنا باید اثبات شود که حضور بیشتر مشتریان باعث افزایش خرید هم می شود یا خیر.
•    عوامل بسیاری برای افزایش قدرت خرید و بهبود کسب و کار  در یک منطقه و مردم وجود دارد و باید بررسی شود که آیا این عوامل تغییری کرده اند یا خیر.
•    شاید برعکس ادعای این فروشنده صحیح باشد و  خلوت شدن این مرکز باعث رشد اسکیت بورد سواران شده باشد و شاید با شلوغ شدن این مرکز خود اسکیت بورد سواران علاقه ای به حضور در این مرکز نداشته باشند.
•    شاید با ممنوعیت حضور اسکیت بورد سواران، مشتریان این مراکز کمتر هم شوند، چرا که شاید خود این اسکیت بورد سواران از این مغازه ها خرید می کنند.

 

Strategies
The first step in performing your analysis consists of identifying the texts’ key point, recommendation, prediction or hypothesis. All the other arguments and assumptions are designed to support this central claim. In this case, the author attempts to demonstrate that “A skateboarding prohibition will return Central Plaza to its previously high levels”.
The next step would involve creating a statement that summarizes the text by including the central claim and its supporting arguments.
The Central Plaza store owner predicts that placing a skateboarding ban in the plaza will restore its economic profitability, given that the increase in the number of skateboarders is the likeliest cause of the increase of vandalism and decrease of business in the area.
When considering what questions are needed to evaluate the arguments outlined in the text, it is important to keep in mind that arguments are based on assumptions – points that are taken to be true, without need for proof. This is what you need to look for – explicit and implicit assumptions, since they lack the evidence required to prove their validity.

Assumptions:
i) Explicit Assumption: Skateboarders are responsible for the decrease of shoppers and business
Implicit Assumptions:
a) Shoppers are severely bothered by skateboarders
b) Skateboarders are the main reason why shopper traffic has decreased
c) Skateboarders are the main reason why business revenues have decreased
d) First the skateboarders appeared and then the number of shoppers decreased
ii) Explicit Assumption: Skateboarders are the cause of littering and vandalism in the area
Implicit Assumptions:
a) Vandalism and littering can be linked to the decrease in traffic and business
b) Only skateboarders could have committed the vandalism and littering acts
c) The vandalism can be directly linked to the skateboarders
iii) Explicit Assumption: A skateboarding ban will restore foot traffic and business revenues in the area
Implicit Assumptions:
a) Skateboarders will respect the ban
b) Vandalism and littering will diminish
c) Customers that left because of the increase in skateboarder numbers will return to the plaza once the ban is instated
d) Traffic will increase sufficiently to restore business revenues
After having established your assumptions, you can find the questions that are needed to evaluate the argument by rephrasing each implicit assumption.

NOTE: The above topic has wording similar to Argument Task 166 of this Website. However, if you read carefully you will notice that the topic and the task instructions are different. Hence, it is very important to read the topic as well as its instructions completely before you start to write your response.

Sample 1:

The Central Plaza store owner predicts that placing a skateboarding ban in the plaza will restore its economic profitability, given that the increase in the number of skateboarders is the likeliest cause of the increase of vandalism and decrease of business in the area. There are a number of questions that need to be taken into consideration in order to be able to evaluate how effective the store owner’s proposal is.

The first thing that comes to mind when looking at the data presented in the letter is related to how much people are actually bothered by the increase in skateboarders. A possible answer to this question would be that shoppers experience only mild annoyance due to the number of skateboarders, and therefore skateboarding would not constitute the reasons for the decrease in shopper traffic. The alternative answer would entail that the people express being severely bothered by the presence of skateboarders in the plaza, to the point where they would not want to shop there anymore. In this case, the skateboarding ban would be effective in preventing more people to abandon the plaza, and with sufficient time, the traffic in the area would be restored.

When making the recommendation to ban skateboarding in Central Plaza, the store owner assumes that skateboarders are the major cause for the area’s decrease in shopper traffic and business revenue. In order to be able to make this claim, the shop owner should first try to figure out if there are any other reasons for the decrease in traffic and business. Should skateboarders prove to be the sole cause for the economic downturn of the plaza, then it is possible that the area would be restored once the ban is instated. The presence of other reasons like the appearance of a new shopping center, the start of the financial crisis or better competitor prices would suggest that the ban would be ineffective in restoring the economic health of the area, and the Central Plaza storeowners should invest time and money into finding solutions for these causes, like redefining their pricing strategy or launching promotional campaigns.

The storeowner’s letter also begs the question of which process came first – the increase in skateboarders or the decrease in business. The increase of skateboarders before the reduction in shopper numbers would suggest that skateboarders could be a possible cause of the declining economic health of the area, but it does not necessarily imply that they are the main cause, as seen above with the other listed potential explanations. However, should the opposite become evident, namely that the number of shoppers coming to the plaza started declining before the skateboarders began frequenting the area, then this evidence would remove the blame from the skateboarders, since the problem existed beforehand. It is possible that skateboarders only started coming into the area because of the low foot traffic – a big open area with few numbers of people is more conductive to skateboarding than a bustling shopping center.

The storeowner’s letter seems to strongly suggest that there is a link between skateboarders and the vandalism and littering in the area. Before resting the blame squarely on the shoulders of a single group of people, the store owner should ask himself whether there are any other possible vandalism culprits aside from skateboarders. The existence of other groups that are capable of committing the crime in the area means that a skateboarding ban is less likely to put a stop to the vandalism in the area. If there are no other groups in the area that could commit the crime, then the possibility that the skateboarders are responsible for the vandalism increases tenfold. In this case a skateboarding ban will have a great impact on the number of vandalism acts committed during shopping times and depending on the customer’s opinion on the deterrent effect of vandalism, it might even increase traffic in the area. This point raises another valid question that needs to be answered before the recommendations of the letter are implemented, namely: is vandalism related to the decrease in business and shopper traffic? If people consider it a major deterrent to shopping in Central Plaza then a skateboarding ban has a chance of invigorating the area’s foot traffic, should skateboarders prove to be responsible for the acts. In this case a better use of resources would be to investigate and corroborate with the local police agents in order to discover the culprits, or organize patrols at night, when the crimes are most likely to occur. Should the vandalism prove to be unimportant to the people’s decisions of shopping in the area it would not have much of a bearing on whether or not a skateboarding ban would be efficient.

The storeowners’ assumption that skateboarders might be responsible for the vandalism in the area needs to be supported by evidence, in order to validate the claim. The store owners of Central Plaza should first investigate whether there is any evidence directly linking the vandalism to the skateboarders before making their decision. Any kind of physical evidence like camera footage, or witness testimonies would be highly helpful in assessing the claim in the letter. The existence of such evidence would also make it easier to take action by involving the police in the proceedings.

Another question that comes to mind when analyzing the effects of the skateboarding ban on the plaza’s economy is whether or not the skateboarders will actually respect the ban, once it is in place. If the answer to that question is no, then even if the skateboarders were to blame for the decrease in shoppers, the implementation of the measure would be useless since it would not be effective in deterring skateboarders from coming to the plaza. Should skateboarders be inclined to respect the ban, then its overall effectiveness would still depend on people’s attitudes towards skateboarding.

All the issues discussed above represent just a small amount of the questions that need to be taken into consideration by the Central Plaza store owners so that they can have a better overview of the situation before making a decision. Much more evidence than what is presented in the letter needs to be brought to attention so that the shop owners can make an informed decision. 


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