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Topic:
The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of WWAC radio station.
"WWAC must change from its current rock-music format because the number of listeners has been declining, even though the population in our listening area has been growing. The population growth has resulted mainly from people moving to our area after their retirement, and we must make listeners of these new residents. But they seem to have limited interest in music: several local stores selling recorded music have recently closed. Therefore, just changing to another kind of music is not going to increase our audience. Instead, we should adopt a news-and-talk format, a form of radio that is increasingly popular in our area."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
موارد زیر در یک یادداشت از مدیر ایستگاه رادیویی WWAC آمده است.
WWAC باید قالب موسیقی راک فعلی خود تغییر دهد زیرا تعداد شنوندگان در حال کاهش است، اگرچه جمعیت در منطقه شنیداری ما در حال افزایش است. " رشد جمعیت عمدتا ناشی از افرادی است که پس از بازنشستگی به منطقه ما نقل مکان کرده اند و ما باید شنوندگان خود را از این ساکنان جدید ایجاد کنیم. اما به نظر می رسد علاقه آنها به موسیقی محدود است: چند فروشگاه محلی که موسیقی ضبط شده می فروشند اخیراً بسته اند. بنابراین، فقط تغییر به نوع دیگری از موسیقی باعث افزایش مخاطبان ما نمی شود. در عوض، ما باید یک قالب خبری و گفتگو، نوعی رادیو که در منطقه ما محبوبیت بیشتری دارد پیدا کنیم. "
پاسخی بنویسید که در آن درباره اینکه چه سوالاتی باید پاسخ داده شود تا تصمیم بگیرید که آیا پیش بینی و استدلالی که بر آن استوار است منطقی است یا نه. حتماً توضیح دهید که چگونه پاسخ این سوالات به ارزیابی پیش بینی کمک می کند.
NOTE: The above topic has wording similar to Argument Tasks 16, 102, 103 of this Website. However, if you read carefully you will notice that the topic and the task instructions are different. Hence, it is very important to read the topic as well as its instructions completely before you start to write your response.
Strategies
A good place to start your analysis is by creating a statement that reveals the main idea of the argument. Although the writer is creating an argument, he may ultimately be stating a position, making a recommendation, or making a prediction. It may be helpful for you to determine which of these formats is most evident in the argument.
WWAC’s station manager has tied a reduction in its listeners to the closings of local music stores and associates that with a lack of interest in music in general, leading to his recommendation to change the format of the station to news and talk shows.
Assumptions:
a) The new residents have little interest in music.
b) Stores have closed because the new residents have little interest in music.
c) Changing its format will allow WWAC to attract more listeners.
d) WWAC will be able to attract listeners from other news-and-talk format stations in the area.
e) People in the area no longer listen to rock music.
f) Retirees prefer news and talk shows.
Questions:
a) Has WWAC made changes in its hours of operation that might account for a decline in listeners?
b) Has another radio station gone on-air in the area, providing competition for WWAC?
c) How much more popular is the talk-show format than it used to be?
d) Do the rock music shows air when they can attract large audiences?
e) Are news-and-talk shows popular with retirees?
f) Has WWAC hired new on-air talent?
After completing these steps, you should have enough material to write your analysis. Remember that you are not creating a position of your own; you are evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of the existing argument. You do not have to include all of the points that you have created in your prewriting. In fact, during the process of drafting your analysis, other ideas may come to mind, and, if they strengthen your analysis
NOTE: The above topic has wording similar to Argument Tasks 16, 102, 103 of this Website. However, if you read carefully you will notice that the topic and the task instructions are different. Hence, it is very important to read the topic as well as its instructions completely before you start to write your response.
Sample 1:
News and talk shows have become pervasive on the radio and television airways over the past few decades. At virtually any time of day, one can tune in to a talk show either on radio or television. The number of stations focusing exclusively on news in each medium has also exploded. The advent of cable television, the Internet, and satellite radio puts news and talk at everybody's fingertips 24/7/365. The assumption that switching to this format based on the brief and vague information in the argument needs further verification before taking this drastic action.
Tying the closing of music stores to the apparent lack of interest in music may be a faulty assumption. Other explanations might be as valid. The proliferation of music competition shows on television and the longevity of these programs demonstrates a continued interest in music by people of all ages. If viewing audiences decline, advertisers may pull their sponsorship of these shows, and they will be off the air in short order. People are listening to music in different ways today. No longer does a jazz aficionado place an lp on a turntable; he downloads his favorite tunes from iTunes onto his iPod nano, plugs in his ear buds, and goes out for a run. Music of all genres is more accessible than it has ever been. If people didn't buy it, record companies would not produce it. Brick-and-mortar music stores have not fared well in the twenty first century but not as a result of declining interest in music.
Assuming that WWAC can make listeners of the retirees that have moved to the area by switching formats may be an exercise in futility. It is likely that many of them are living on fixed incomes and have little discretionary income to spend on entertainment. They might watch a lot of television and spend minimal time listening to the radio. This lack of spending money may contribute to the supposed lack of interest in music. They cannot afford to buy albums. On the other hand, they may have purchased all of the music they need before retiring. They either don't need or want to accumulate more possessions of any kind.
More people listen to the radio during drive time - the periods spent driving to and from work- than any other time of day. The assumption that retirees should be WWAC’s target audience could eliminate a larger number of listeners. Perhaps, WWAC should focus their appeal to those who work every day. Those commuters may prefer music of any genre to news reports that can be disturbing or talk shows that can be strident.
Just as they develop shopping habits, people develop listening habits. Attracting customers or listeners is generally a time-consuming and expensive proposition. Because there are already radio stations that have a news and talk-show format in the area, WWAC may have to go the extra mile to become successful in that market. The assumption that attracting new listeners is more cost effective than trying to maintain the listeners they already have could lead to unnecessary spending. They must offer shows that are different from and better than those already being aired. They will need to convince their sponsors that they can increase the number of listeners. If WWAC plans to use syndicated shows, the station will have to pay fees to the owners of those shows. Those listeners who currently tune in to hear rock music could abandon the station for another that plays rock. WWAC will not only need to attract new listeners, it will have to replace those it loses as a result of the change in format.
WWAC needs to conduct some market research before relying on the assumptions in the argument and abandoning its current format. A more varied mix of genres may help. Those retirees may, indeed, listen to the radio, but they prefer jazz or standards. The station may need to change its hours of operation. The local market may be saturated with talk and news shows. Without more detailed information, WWAC may make a decision that will lead to its going off the air.
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